Gold has been the investment story of the past couple of years, but silver prices have also risen sharply, with Elon Musk even warning that the high cost of the precious metal could harm manufacturing. 

One major source of anxiety around supply was China’s reported intention to curb silver exports. Yet, as Bloomberg sharply notes, China’s silver exports last year reached their highest level in at least 16 years, suggesting that observers may have misread Beijing’s intentions. 

Investors and manufacturers shouldn’t be complacent. China, which dominates silver refining globally, has placed licencing requirements on exports of silver, antimony and tungsten, which the country sees as strategically important for its own industry. In principle, if China’s domestic demand rises, or if geopolitical risks shift, exports could quickly decline.  

Taking the long view 

Silver is a key industrial metal, with current demand being strongly driven by the green energy transition. Silver’s conductivity makes it particularly useful in solar photovoltaics and in the assembly of electric vehicle components.  

On top of this, investment in electronics-intensive AI infrastructure put considerable additional pressure on silver supplies.  

Crucially, demand is not merely the product of the current business cycle. One study, for example, projects silver demand to reach 48 000 to 52 000 tons per year by 2030, potentially exceeding annual production.  

Silver strategy  

In this context, trade policy and access could become decisive factors shaping who can secure the metal, and at what cost. 

However, we shouldn’t see this simply as a question of where the resources are located. Mexico may be the world’s largest silver miner, but it’s China’s dominance in refining that ultimately shapes global supply dynamics. As with rare earths, China’s strength comes not from owning the most resources but from investing heavily in the industrial capacity needed to process them, a reminder that resource constraints are often less about where minerals are found and more about who can turn them into usable materials at scale. 

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