“America has a new clash of civilizations — with European liberals”. The Vox headline may be a little dramatic, but it forcefully makes the point the EU can no longer take US policy support for granted. The piece in question quotes the new US National Security Strategy document, which expresses concern about European Union as a political entity: “The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.”
The feeling in Europe is, to some extent, mutual. One recent poll found that nearly half of respondents in Europe see US President Trump as “an enemy of Europe”.
These headlines highlight heated popular sentiments on either side of the Atlantic, rather than hardheaded policy analysis. However, they do reveal to some extent a realignment of assumptions about trade and traditional geopolitical alliances.
Shifting blocs
This is the broader context in which French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent trip to China took place. Macron faces a difficult balancing act: on one hand, seeking to cement a strategic partnership amid an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. As the Financial Times reports, “experts say Beijing believes Paris can help steer Europe towards a foreign policy more independent of the US and friendlier to China.”
Yet Macron also delivered a firm warning on trade, calling current “imbalances unbearable.” EU policymakers are weighing “made in Europe” targets to bolster domestic manufacturing. Analysts, however, frame trade in broader geopolitical terms, with one French official telling the FT: “If we don’t change course, we will worsen global fragmentation.”
French media remain sceptical about Macron’s leverage. A Le Monde editorial asked how much influence a European middle power can exert over an emerging superpower. Still, Macron speaks for a major EU economy, and contrary to the US strategy document, the erosion of transatlantic consensus may push Europe toward greater unity, not less.
Underscoring China’s role as the world’s factory, China’s annual trade surplus in goods has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time.
While Chinese exports to the US have fallen by nearly 29% year-on-year, China’s efforts to diversify its export market have seen a surge of exports to broader markets across Africa, Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
A new world trade order?
As we move into 2026, the politics of trade could come to define the global economy. The erosion of transatlantic consensus, Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, and China’s diversification of trade relationships are driving us into uncharted territory.
2026 may not quite bring us a ‘clash of civilisations’ but it could mark the development of new global alliances, and trading blocs that may have been unimaginable just a decade ago.
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